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                           Stock Market Historian

   This website is updated to reflect the results of HK signals (see table below), and also updated once per year (in early January) to include the returns of the year just ended.




  Home     More Bio     Annual Returns Compared      EMT Challenge    QE Explained

             My name is John K. Harris. I am a Ph.D. in accounting and a Professor Emeritus, University of Tulsa. I was a CPA for 30 years. Via self-directed study for the last 23 years, I have become a stock market historian. In 2016, I self-published a book: The Grow-and-Protect Investment Strategy: Evidence and Inspiration (Revised First Edition). It is available on Amazon.  To learn more about my stock market credentials, click here.  My research partner is Kip Karney, a career microbiologist, who like me, is self-taught regarding the stock market.


                    The updated HK Performance Record appears below, 11/12/19-the present.


G&P book 2nd ed 2020Description of Book

            The buy-and-hold (B&H) strategy along with dollar-cost averaging has served millions of investors very well for a long time. The new-found knowledge imparted in my book provides specific answers regarding when to be invested in the S&P 500 or when to hold cash or go short the S&P 500. This knowledge has the potential to help individual investors grow and protect (G&P) their wealth with “sleep well” confidence. The knowledge also will broaden the perspectives of financial advisers, professional money managers, market strategists, market technicians, financial journalists and the academic community.  (For a comparison of the 4-year live test of G&P returns vs. S&P 500 returns, click here.)  (For details on the G&P model’s challenge and the Harris Karney [HK] model's challenge to the Efficient Market Theory, click here.) Regardless of your perspective, Louis Pasteur’s insightful observation applies today: “Chance favors the prepared mind.”

            May the B&H model, the G&P model, and the Harris Karney model help illuminate your financial path. God bless you!


Endorsement of Book

            “People make their investment decisions in various ways. Some favor looking at history. If you like that approach, you should consider the popular buy-and-hold strategy and the grow-and-protect strategy (based on the brand-new Harris Karney market timing model) set forth in this book. Dr. Harris writes in a user-friendly way that can be readily understood by those less familiar with investing and its terminology. I think experienced investors also will find the book to be a worthwhile read. The knowledge imparted in the book can help you manage your wealth with confidence. An uncommon feature of the book is the moving spiritual account Dr. Harris gives of his life during 1997-2019."

                                                                       Srikant Datar
                                                                       Dean, Harvard Business School



HK Performance Record, 11/12/19–12/31/20







  Date S&P 500 HK
Signal Number
HK
Signal
Gain or Loss
from Signal
to Signal
IRA
Balance








11/12/19 3091.84 1 Buy SPY
   N.A.  
$10,000
02/24/20 3225.89 2 Sell SPY & buy SH
  4.34%  10,423
03/04/20 3130.12 3 Sell SH & buy SPY   2.97%  10,733
03/06/20 2972.37 4 Sell SPY & buy SH −5.04%  10,192
03/09/20 2746.56 5 Sell SH & buy SPY   7.60%  10,966
03/10/20 2883.82 6 Sell SPY & buy SH   5.00%  11,515
03/11/20 2741.38 7 Sell SH & buy SPY   4.94%  12,083
03/13/20 2711.02 8 Sell SPY & buy SH −1.11%  11,949
03/16/20 2386.13 9 Sell SH & buy SPY 11.98%  13,381
03/17/20 2529.19 10 Sell SPY & buy SH   6.00%  14,184
03/20/20
2304.92
11 Sell SH & buy SPY   8.87%
 15,418

10/27/20
3390.68
12 Sell SPY & buy SH 47.11%
 22,681

11/03/20 3369.13
13
Sell SH & buy SPY 0.64%  22,826

12/31/20 3756.07
NA Pseudo Sell SPY* 11.48%
 25,446










    *see my book, 2nd edition (2020), p. 72









             B&H (3756.07 ÷ 3091.84) −1 =  21.48%, or $10,000 x (1+ 21.48%) = $12,148

             The bottom line: ($25,446 ÷ $12,148) −1 = 109.47%; HK beat B&H by 109.47% in the last 13.6 months














                                                                    website last updated 1/2/2021 15:19 CT



























More Bio


            In my book, you’ll see I’m a “numbers guy” who has turned an analytical eye to the S&P 500’s historical movements. Also in the book, I describe in detail—as it related to my stock market research—my spiritual journey as a Christian.
            For 30 years, I authored the Student Guide that accompanied the world’s leading Cost Accounting textbook. And many times during the last decade, my work as a stock market historian has been cited in Barron’s as follows:  


John K. Harris Research Cited in Barron’s

(a baker’s dozen in chronological order)
 Note: Mike Santoli is now (February 2020) Senior Market Commentator at CNBC.

1. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (December 1, 2003), p. MW3.

·     The S&P 500’s long winning streaks of 120 trading days or more without a 5% pullback placed in the context of the bull market’s length.

2. Michael Santoli, “Dullsville U.S.A.,” Barron’s (July 19, 2004), p. 19.

·     The S&P 500’s very low volatility in January–June periods linked to the 4-year U.S. Presidential cycle.

3. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (August 16, 2004), p. MW3–MW4.

·     Of the 18 years when the S&P 500 reached a YTD low after July 31, 10 saw the year’s low occur in August.

4. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (February 20, 2006), p. M3.

·     The Dow’s long winning streaks of 120 trading days or more without a 5% pullback compared to the current streak.

5. Alan Abelson, Up&Down Wall Street column, Barron’s (October 27, 2008), p. 6.

·     The near-term aftermath in U.S. Presidential election years when the S&P 500 was in a bear market on Election Day.

6. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (December 29, 2008), p. M5.

·     Years when the S&P 500 fell 10% or more in the October–December quarter typically ushered in a very weak next year.

7. Michael Santoli, Streetwise column, Barron’s (February 23, 2009), p. 15.

·     Years when the S&P 500 fell 10% or more in January or February had much more downside in the following months.

8. Michael Santoli, Streetwise column, Barron’s (October 19, 2009), p. 5.

·     The S&P 500’s rally in 2009 was remarkably similar to the rally in 1938.

9. Michael Santoli, “Bullish Trends for 2010,” Barron’s (January 4, 2010), p. 11.

·     The S&P 500’s near-term prospects when its high for the preceding year occurred in December.

10. Michael Santoli, “Too Beautiful for You,” Barron’s (February 21, 2011), p. 19.

·     The S&P 500’s long winning streaks of 120 trading days or more without a 5% pullback placed in the context of the bull market’s length.

11. Michael Santoli, “Enjoying a Low-Volume Levitation,” Barron’s (March 28, 2011), p. 21.

·     Years when the S&P 500 did not close lower than the preceding year’s closing high had an average return far better than the average return for all years.

12. Michael Santoli, “Awaiting September’s Performance,” Barron’s (September 5, 2011), p. 11.

·     The S&P 500’s June–August performance as a predictor of September.

13. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (January 2, 2012), p. M3.

·     Years when the S&P 500 total was in the range of -5% to +5% had a positive tendency for the next year, but sometimes with nastiness involved.


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G&P model vs. S&P 500

Return consists of two elements: price change and dividends earned. The G&P model was live tested for 3 years, 2017-2019:


                            G&P Return    S&P 500 Return    Difference
     
                 2017        21.4%                 21.8%                    -0.4%
                 2018        25.6%                  -4.4%                   30.0%
                 2019        22.5%                 31.5%                    -9.0%
                 Mean       23.2%                 16.3%                     6.9%

Harris Karney (HK) model vs. S&P 500

Return consists of two elements: price change and dividends earned. The HK model, which superseded the G&P model, has been live tested 11/12/19 to 12/31/20:


                              HK Return    S&P 500 Return      Difference

11/12/19 to 12/31/19        4.83%               4.83%                      --
                 2020      127.72%             18.40%                109.32%
                 2021            ?                        ?                             ?         
 

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QE Explained
 

Here are some informative videos.   I would characterize the first one as very funny/very serious. Perhaps their contents might explain why the next bear market, whenever it occurs, could be very devastating to everyone who is long the market (e.g., holding SPY).  The purpose of the Harris Karney model is to be short the S&P 500 (i.e., own SH) during the next bear market.


When the first video ends, just wait several seconds and others will follow.

Watch this video about quantitative easing where it explains what's going on to a level even Congress can understand it!  It would be astoundingly funny if it weren't so real.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k&feature=player_embedded#!

Quantitative Easing Explained

(When you use this link, then click on "Skip Ads.")


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EMT Challenge

            A number of scholars at the University of Chicago, Stanford University, and MIT developed modern portfolio theory (MPT) during the 1960s (my book describes MPT, pp. 21-25). Most of the work was completed by the late 1960s. From a market-timing standpoint, the significant tenet of MPT is the efficient market theory (EMT). This theory holds that market timing is a fool’s errand, because stock prices are thought to always incorporate all information the instant it becomes known. The B&H strategy is popular because of the widespread belief in EMT.

            Since the late 1960s, at least five important changes have occurred, which form the basis for Kip Karney's and my challenge to EMT:
1.  Brokerage commissions today are 0% compared to the 1960s brokerage commissions of 2% of total market value of the transaction to buy, and then another 2% to sell.
2.  The bid-ask spread on high volume exchange-traded funds such as SPY (which mimics the movements of the S&P 500) today is typically 1¢ per share compared to 12.5¢ or more per share for stock trades in the 1960s.
3.  Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) became available some 25 years ago; they trade each day like stocks.
4.  A revolution in computer technology has occurred, which includes the widespread use of algorithm-testing and other electronic spreadsheet applications, the Internet, online brokerage accounts and iPhones.
5.  Some 50 years of stock market data are available today (the entire input data for the G&P model), along with artificial intelligence, which did not exist in the 1960s.

The live tests of the G&P model (2016-2019) and the HK model (11/12/19-12/31/19) vs. buying-and-holding the S&P 500 are reported here.


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